UPDATED Nov. 27, 2024, at 10:31 AM
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Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
KEY
ESTIMATE
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE
Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average.
| Dates | Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Sponsor | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Result |
President: general election, 2024AVG.
Nov. 3-4 | 2,703 | LV | Nov. 3-4 2,703LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
Nov. 3-4 | 2,703 | LV | Nov. 3-4 2,703LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% Stein 1% West 0% Oliver 0% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
48% Harris 49% Trump 1% Stein 0% West 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Nov. 2-3 | 1,003 | LV | Nov. 2-3 1,003LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
Nov. 2-3 | 1,005 | LV | Nov. 2-3 1,005LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
Nov. 2-3 | 1,005 | LV | Nov. 2-3 1,005LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 45% Oliver 3% Stein 2% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | |||
48% Harris 45% Trump 3% Oliver 2% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Nov. 1-3 | 1,411 | LV | Nov. 1-3 1,411LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% West 1% Stein 1% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
48% Harris 49% Trump 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Nov. 1-3 | 1,411 | LV | Nov. 1-3 1,411LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Even | ||||
Nov. 1-3 | 1,115 | RV | Nov. 1-3 1,115RV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
Nov. 1-3 | 973 | LV | Nov. 1-3 973LV | Reuters | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
Nov. 1-3 | 1,242 | A | Nov. 1-3 1,242A | Reuters | Harris | 41% | Harris | 41% | Harris 41% Trump 39% | 39% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
Oct.31-Nov.3 | 886 | LV | Oct.31-Nov.3 886LV | The New York Post | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
Nov. 1-2 | 2,463 | LV | Nov. 1-2 2,463LV | AtlasIntel | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
Nov. 1-2 | 2,463 | LV | Nov. 1-2 2,463LV | AtlasIntel | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 49% Stein 1% Oliver 0% West 0% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
47% Harris 49% Trump 1% Stein 0% Oliver 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Oct.31-Nov.2 | 1,446 | RV | Oct.31-Nov.2 1,446RV | NPR, PBS News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Even | |||
Oct.31-Nov.2 | 1,297 | LV | Oct.31-Nov.2 1,297LV | NPR, PBS News | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 1,000 | RV | Oct.30-Nov.2 1,000RV | NBC News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Even | |||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 1,000 | RV | Oct.30-Nov.2 1,000RV | NBC News | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 47% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% Oliver 1% West 0% Terry 0% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
46% Harris 47% Trump 1% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% West 0% Terry | |||||||||||||||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 4,520 | RV | Oct.30-Nov.2 4,520RV | Forbes | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 47% West 3% Stein 2% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
48% Harris 47% Trump 3% West 2% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 4,520 | RV | Oct.30-Nov.2 4,520RV | Forbes | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Even | |||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 3,759 | LV | Oct.30-Nov.2 3,759LV | Forbes | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 3,759 | LV | Oct.30-Nov.2 3,759LV | Forbes | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 48% West 2% Stein 1% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
49% Harris 48% Trump 2% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct.30-Nov.2 | 1,000 | LV | Oct.30-Nov.2 1,000LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Even | ||||
Oct.27-Nov.2 | 1,000 | LV | Oct.27-Nov.2 1,000LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
Oct.30-Nov.1 | 1,088 | LV | Oct.30-Nov.1 1,088LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 46% Kennedy 1% Oliver 0% Stein 0% West 0% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +3 | |||
49% Harris 46% Trump 1% Kennedy 0% Oliver 0% Stein 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Oct.30-Nov.1 | 1,200 | RV | Oct.30-Nov.1 1,200RV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% Kennedy 1% Oliver 1% Stein 0% West 0% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | |||
49% Harris 45% Trump 1% Kennedy 1% Oliver 0% Stein 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Oct.29-Nov.1 | 2,267 | LV | Oct.29-Nov.1 2,267LV | ABC News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 46% Oliver 1% West 0% Stein 0% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
49% Harris 46% Trump 1% Oliver 0% West 0% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct.29-Nov.1 | 2,735 | RV | Oct.29-Nov.1 2,735RV | ABC News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 46% Stein 1% Oliver 1% West 0% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
49% Harris 46% Trump 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Oct.29-Nov.1 | 3,140 | A | Oct.29-Nov.1 3,140A | ABC News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 46% Stein 1% Oliver 1% West 0% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
49% Harris 46% Trump 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 31 | 671 | RV | Oct. 31 671RV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
Oct. 30-31 | 984 | LV | Oct. 30-31 984LV | On Point Politics, Red Eagle Politics Red Eagle Politics is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
Oct. 30-31 | 3,490 | LV | Oct. 30-31 3,490LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
Oct. 30-31 | 3,490 | LV | Oct. 30-31 3,490LV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 49% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
47% Harris 49% Trump 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 29-31 | 1,152 | LV | Oct. 29-31 1,152LV | Yahoo News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
Oct. 29-31 | 1,267 | RV | Oct. 29-31 1,267RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Even | |||
Oct. 29-31 | 1,152 | LV | Oct. 29-31 1,152LV | Yahoo News | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 48% Stein 1% West 0% Oliver 0% | 48% | Trump | Even | |||
48% Harris 48% Trump 1% Stein 0% West 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 29-31 | 1,267 | RV | Oct. 29-31 1,267RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 47% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 47% | Trump | Even | |||
47% Harris 47% Trump 1% West 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 29-31 | 1,249 | LV | Oct. 29-31 1,249LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% West 1% Stein 1% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
48% Harris 49% Trump 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 29-31 | 1,249 | LV | Oct. 29-31 1,249LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
Oct. 29-31 | 8,918 | LV | Oct. 29-31 8,918LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
Oct. 28-31 | 1,328 | LV | Oct. 28-31 1,328LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
Oct. 28-31 | 1,328 | LV | Oct. 28-31 1,328LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 47% Kennedy 1% Oliver 1% Stein 0% West 0% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
49% Harris 47% Trump 1% Kennedy 1% Oliver 0% Stein 0% West | |||||||||||||||
avg.
Indicates a polling average for this poll type
Candidate is an incumbent
Partisan types
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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.
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Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
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Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Polling averages by G. Elliott Morris. Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Irena Li, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan, Geoffrey Skelley and Julia Wolfe contributed research. Editing by Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Copy editing by Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Alex Kimball, Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan, Maya Sweedler and Curtis Yee.
